Al Qaeda wants to ease pressure off Pak tribal areas, hence the terror attack on Mumbai

Columnist Swapan Dasgupta wrote in his column in the Times of India that India should get tough with India after the terror attack on India. He writes, "We are through with a Chamberlain; it's time for a Churchill."

I wish it was as simple as that. Agreed there was a security failure. The politicians failed us again for failing to set up an effective anti-terror system in place, despite the fact that they have all the resources and power at their disposal to do so.

But look at the Mumbai terror attacks in a broader context. It is very simple. The US has stepped up attacks on the Taliban and top Al Qaeda bosses hideouts in Pakistan's tribal areas. These areas have become the new hub of international terror. The Bush administration has started attacks with drones. It is very likely that the new Obama government will send in the US army into the areas to flush out the Al qaeda leaders.

That is when the Al qaeda came up with an brain wave. Hit India hard with a brutal terror attack. And leave enough clues that the terrorists came from Pakistan. That would lead to worsening of relations between India and Pakistan. It would give the Islamist elements in the Pak army an excuse to shift Pak troops away from the Afghan border and put them on the India border. The pressure on Taliban/ al Qaeda based in the tribal areas would ease.

India will have act sensibly now. Most Indians are angry and baying for blood. There is tremendous pressure on the government to get tough with Pakistan. That is exactly what the al Qaeda top bosses want. If India acts hastily and gets tough with Pakistan, then the aim of the attack will be fulfilled.

India should understand that it cannot deal with Pakistan on its own. Any hasty military attacks on terror camps in Pakistan could end in a nuke war. India does not have any leverage over Pakistan. The US has that. Money. The Pakistan economy is in a bad shape now. China has refused to give any aid. The country has turned to the IMF for money. That weakness could be used to try and rid Pakistan of the hardline Islamist elements. The ISI could be tamed. The Pak army could be purged of its Islamist elements that are in cahoots with the Al Qaeda.

India will have to act sensibly now. It will have to act in close co-operation with the US.

Bibliography

Save Pakistan To Save Us All by Gautam Adhikari